Predictable Winners by L.E.K. Consulting partners Stuart Jackson and Ilya Trakhtenberg provides a comprehensive, step-by-step playbook for innovation and product development
BOSTON (March 18, 2025) - Despite billions spent on R&D and new product development every year, studies show that as many as 90% of new product launches fail. Innovation is hard at any time, and in the context of today’s geopolitical instability, demographic headwinds and fast-evolving consumer preferences, the path to success is even more uncertain.
But a new book out today contends that game-changing innovation breakthroughs can be achieved if companies take a much more systematic approach to the entire innovation journey.
In Predictable Winners: A Handbook for Developing, Forecasting and Launching New Products and Services (Stanford University Press, 2025), authors Stuart Jackson and Ilya Trakhtenberg, both partners at the global strategy consultancy L.E.K. Consulting, provide a comprehensive, step-by-step innovation roadmap that’s been proven to pay dividends for organizations of all shapes and sizes
Their insights, which are drawn from decades of experience helping clients bring thousands of new products and services to market, are especially timely with most of the country’s biggest companies still struggling to innovate effectively. In fact, outside of the Magnificent Seven companies - Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla - the rest of the S&P 500 delivered just 8% average annual growth between 2015 and 2024.
“Innovation and product development need to be more than a roll of the dice but, unfortunately, that’s where most companies are at,” Jackson says. “It doesn’t have to be that way. By taking a systematic approach, companies can stop gambling with their resources and dramatically increase their odds of success.”
Specifically, Jackson and Trakhtenberg write that leaders can improve those odds by evaluating many indicators of success, rather than just one or two. Among their recommendations:
- Don’t fixate on a single approach to assessing the new product’s potential. Leverage multiple sources of information.
- Know your organization’s strengths and prejudices. You might have a strong market insights group or a world-class rapid prototyping team. But don’t ignore other information sources.
- Gather market feedback early – and pay attention to actual customer behavior, not stated intentions.
- Plan for “fast fail” and other lean approaches – so costs and timelines don’t grow out of control.
- Constantly re-evaluate and re-prioritize – these are not things you do just once.
- Delay big spending while creating room to experiment and learn.
- Make sure those experiments lead to new actionable insights.
“It’s never been more difficult to bring new products and services to market,” Trakhtenberg says. “Competition is fierce, and customers are increasingly discerning. Unlocking the power of data can of course be hugely instructive, but it can also confuse decision making. That said, there are scores of companies that can break through and innovate in the way the Magnificent Seven have. But that won’t happen by accident. It requires a methodical approach to each step of the innovation process.”
The book is informed by in-depth case studies and insights from both emerging start-ups and established giants like Google, P&G, Tesla and Disney.
About the Authors
Stuart Jackson led L.E.K. Consulting as Global Managing Partner and now serves as Vice Chair. He has worked with hundreds of clients who have enjoyed higher growth, increased their profit margins in existing businesses, added scores of new services and products, and completed more than 100 merger and acquisition transactions. He is a past recipient of Consulting Magazine’s Top 25 Consultants award. He is the author of the highly acclaimed book Where Value Hides: A New Way to Uncover Profitable Growth for Your Business (Wiley, 2006) and has contributed to The Wall Street Journal, The Journal of Business Strategy and Harvard Business Review.
Ilya Trakhtenberg is a Managing Director with L.E.K. Consulting and a leading partner in its healthcare practice. In his 15 years with L.E.K., he has led hundreds of engagements with a wide range of corporate and private equity clients to develop and launch innovative new products, accelerate business growth, and deliver superior investment returns. He has published more than a dozen journal articles, serves as a regular speaker at industry conferences, and founded L.E.K.’s MedTech Launch Center of Excellence. Ilya is also a past recipient of M&A Advisor’s Emerging Leaders Award and a board member of L.E.K.’s global Sustainability Centre of Excellence.
About L.E.K. Consulting
We’re L.E.K. Consulting, a global strategy consultancy working with business leaders to seize competitive advantage and amplify growth. Our insights are catalysts that reshape the trajectory of our clients’ businesses, uncovering opportunities and empowering them to master their moments of truth. Since 1983, our worldwide practice — spanning the Americas, Europe, Middle East and Asia-Pacific — has guided leaders across all industries, from global corporations to emerging entrepreneurial businesses and private equity investors. Looking for more? Visit www.lek.com.